Two-way center fielders once roamed MLB. Where have they gone? Were the dinosaurs

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — On the first day of spring training, Mets manager Buck Showalter recalled the fear of losing Brandon Nimmo to free agency. He spoke in a hushed tone, as if he were sharing a repressed memory.

“When you think about life without something …” said Showalter, who then denied his mind a chance at drifting any further into such a consideration. “That one, I didn’t have a real answer for.”

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If the Mets didn’t re-sign Nimmo to an eight-year, $162 million contract over the offseason, they would’ve joined so many other teams in wondering the same question ahead of 2023: Where have all the two-way center fielders gone?

“It’s hard to find a center fielder,” Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “It really is.”

Nimmo benefited from the scarcity this past winter. During an offseason in which four shortstops inked nine-year contracts, Nimmo received a bevy of suitors, despite his advancing age (he will turn 30 in March) and his checkered injury history (he has played in more than 140 games only once in his career). His flaws did not overshadow his ability — and the lack of viable alternatives.

The difficulty Dombrowski mentioned only increases when looking for a regular at the position who can supply above-average offense and better than replacement-level defense. In 2022, only five players produced a 101 OPS+ or higher (100 is average) and a 0.1 defensive bWAR or higher (0.0 is replacement level) while appearing in at least 100 games in center field: Mike Trout, Julio Rodríguez, Michael Harris, Cedric Mullins and Nimmo.

Two-way center fielders 2022

Over the past five full seasons, the average number of center fielders to meet the above standard has dwindled to 3.4 per year. In this span, no season saw more than five players meet the standard, with the low point coming in 2019 when the only center fielder to do so was Ronald Acuña Jr.

Meanwhile, during a 15-year period from 2002 to 2016, an average of 7.5 center fielders met the standard while no season in this timeframe saw fewer than six center fielders qualify as two-way players. The high point came in 2004 when 10 qualified center fielders met the threshold.

Two-way center fielders 2004

Back then, Jim Edmonds, Steve Finley, Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltrán highlighted the group of center fielders who posed a threat in the batter’s box and gracefully patrolled the outfield.

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“We’re the dinosaurs,” said Beltrán, now a special assistant to the general manager inside the Mets front office.

When asked what makes a great all-around center fielder, Beltrán listed the five traditional tools, plus instincts. But it’s hard to develop such traits, he said, without experience. These days, teams value positional versatility at an obsessive level, which leads to more players spending time at all three outfield spots, including in the minor leagues. That could mean some players lack the chance to commit the necessary time to master center field, but Beltrán largely pointed to positional versatility as a reason why some individual numbers could be down.

But even if teams are rotating more players into center field, they are typically not receiving above-average offense from their unit at the position. In 2022, only nine teams had a collective wRC+ higher than 100 (league average) from center field. As recently as five years ago, the number of teams with an above-average wRC+ in center field typically landed around 15.

So what gives?

Several club executives attributed the decline of an all-around center fielder to the premium now placed on defense at the position. There’s such a high value attached to defense that any offense from center field largely gets viewed as a bonus.

“Defense is what comes first,” Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said. “You can’t live with well below average at that position. You can’t survive. You can live with that at second base. You can live with that in left field. You can just tolerate it, right? So there’s certain positions there’s just a barrier to entry. You don’t view them as offensive positions.

“For the most part, you’re looking for the five tools. But the bat is almost last. Because if you don’t have the others, you can’t even have the conversation.”

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Teams prioritize defense because the position demands players to cover so much ground. Front offices track players’ movements throughout games. According to Nimmo, the Mets’ analytics group shared data with him about how often he was using a 90-percent effort and a 70-percent effort. Nimmo said he was told that he reached maximum effort roughly 1 1/2 times as often as the other outfielders and about twice as often as the infielders.

“It makes it a position that’s hard to be durable in, hard to be a great defender in, because it requires speed and if you have any little nicks or injuries or whatever, it affects that,” Nimmo said. “That wear and tear and being an elite defender like that, it takes a lot of speed and it takes a lot of toll on your body and makes it difficult to produce at the plate. It’s a tough position to merge the two together.”

Last season, Nimmo, 29, slashed .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs and a 130 OPS+. He operates as the Mets’ leadoff hitter because of his elite on-base skills and speed. After improving defensively, he recorded a 0.3 defensive bWAR. In 2022, Nimmo played in a career-best 151 games. It was only the second time in his seven-year career that he appeared in more than 100 games. He isn’t the only talented two-way center fielder who has struggled to stay on the field. The Twins’ Byron Buxton and the White Sox’s Luis Robert have played on a limited basis the last few years because of injuries.

Considering his myriad responsibilities, Nimmo plans to circumscribe his pre-game activity to maintain his health. Known for being a hard worker, the adjustment may not come naturally to him. Showalter and others have tried to emphasize his importance to the club in conversations with him. No longer is his presence in the outfield during batting practice a necessity, for example. “With the amount of ground that I cover, if I go out to BP every single day and go track balls, you’re going to break down at some point,” Nimmo said.

During the Mets’ trip to Los Angeles last June, Nimmo met with his agent Scott Boras, who staggered him with statistics. One page showed a brief list of center fielders who have played 120 or more games at the position in consecutive years. Another page detailed a shorter list of center fielders who have produced quality numbers on offense and defense.

“It really prepared me for how sparse the center field position is of guys who can do it both ways,” Nimmo said. “It opened my eyes like, ‘Wow, this is hard.'”

When Nimmo arrived at the winter meetings to talk with teams, several coveted him. As he explored the market, the Mets weighed their options, including the addition of a versatile outfielder. They also considered asking Starling Marte to spend some time in center field, where for the past few years before joining the Mets in 2022 he had provided plus offense and passable defense. However, the 34-year-old Marte underwent groin surgery in November. And with Nimmo back as the Mets’ center fielder, Marte said that he preferred to remain in right field rather than mix in action in center field on days when Nimmo needs a day off. Marte said he wants to increase his comfort in right field, an example of the emphasis on positional flexibility that Beltrán believes has played a role in the decline of two-way center fielders.

Said Marte: “A big part of it is a player sometimes gets moved off of center field and then they become pretty good at the other position and ends up sticking there.”

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After Nimmo returned to the Mets, other teams were forced to seek alternatives. Cody Bellinger signed a $17.5 million contract with the Cubs, despite hitting .203 with a .648 OPS across the past three seasons. Some teams got creative.

After surveying the dearth of center fielders in next year’s free-agent class, the Marlins pivoted to an in-house option. They acquired infielder Luis Arraez and moved infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field.

“We had thought about this before this offseason, but never were really — forced is a strong word — but the opportunity never really presented itself in a meaningful way,” Marlins GM Kim Ng said. “But this offseason, it did.”

Chisholm’s move to center field highlights a trend within a trend: While there may not be many elite center fielders, there are plenty of strong shortstops. The Baltimore Orioles confronted this when making the first pick of the 2022 draft. Although the team opted for shortstop Jackson Holliday over outfielder Druw Jones, team officials recognized a changing landscape among prospects.

“My assumption had always been that the shortstops were more of a scarcity,” Orioles GM Mike Elias said. “But we were looking at it, and the scarcity argument seemed to be on the center fielder’s side.”

One theory regarding the discrepancy between the number of standout shortstops compared to center fielders goes back to Beltrán’s point regarding instincts. Elias hypothesized that young players from places like the Dominican Republic do not play in as many organized games and therefore do not see a lot of live reads as outfielders; they grow up playing shortstop.

“You more commonly see people move from infield to outfield than the other way around,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said. “You could infer, then, that those who can stay on the infield are going to obviously reap the rewards of it.”

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Some executives, including Bloom, offered a simple explanation for the decline of the two-way center fielder: Things in baseball tend to be cyclical. That may be true. There’s a distinct possibility that Trout remains elite, Nimmo stays healthy, Chisholm emerges as a reliable option and young stars like Rodriguez, Harris and a few up-and-coming prospects continue to thrive. But for teams looking for help right now? Good luck.

Next year’s free-agent market will again be lacking. Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader, an excellent, speedy defender with a 97 career OPS+, headlines the group along with Bellinger. After signing a one-year, $9 million deal with Toronto, Kevin Kiermaier will again test free agency, where he drew solid interest over the winter largely because of his defense. Beyond that, the pickings again may be slim.

Ditto for this year’s market at the trade deadline. At last year’s deadline, scarcity played a part in the motivation for the Phillies to acquire Brandon Marsh, an above-average defender with a questionable offensive skillset. At the time, Philadelphia’s fWAR for the position ranked toward the bottom of the league. So they did what so many teams end up doing at center field. They scanned the list of available players, failed to see safe bets for both offense and defense, and decided to emphasize the latter.

“We thought, ‘I don’t know where you get center fielders,'” Dombrowski said. “And you start talking to other clubs, and they can’t get center fielders.”

(Top illustration Samuel Richardson / The Athletic; Photos Matthew Stockman / Allsport, Christian Petersen and Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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